Saturday, 15 April 2017
Friday, 14 April 2017
Trump is letting China and Mexico off the hook
Donald Trump the president looks less and less like Donald Trump the candidate.
While campaigning last year, Trump promised, among other things, to label China a currency manipulator and rework or withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement within his first 100 days. Neither is happening.Trump recently told the Wall Street Journal that he won’t officially accuse China of currency manipulation, at least not any time soon. He hasn’t done anything about NAFTA, except to say “pleasant surprises” are coming. He has continued to threaten tariffs on certain imports from the two countries, but he hasn’t backed that with legislative or policy proposals. For all his bluster, Trump seems to be letting China and Mexico off the hook.
The two countries served as Trump’s most convenient bogeymen during the campaign, when he repeatedly claimed that low-paid workers from Mexico and China had taken millions of jobs that once belonged to Americans. Among Trump’s more memorable accusations:
“We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country.”
Mexico is “killing us on trade.”
“Other countries are eating our lunch.”
Trump used the
threat of trade wars to great effect during the campaign, convincing
millions of American workers that a tougher stance on trade would make
them better off. He now seems to be changing his mind, which is not
surprising given that hundreds of economists and business leaders have
warned that punitive tariffs and other protectionist measures would do
more economic harm than good.
It might be tempting to call
Trump a flip-flopper, but it’s also worth noting that his views on key
economic issues seem to be maturing as he shifts from campaigning to
governing. It has certainly happened to other newly elected presidents.
Many campaign promises are never fulfilled, which is perhaps one reason
Americans have soured on electoral politics.
Many Trump campaign promises would also be
reckless if fulfilled. Labeling China a currency manipulator would open
the door for US trade restrictions on China, and China would probably
retaliate with similar sanctions on the United States. This would spook
markets, probably sending stocks down. If such measures actually went
into effect, prices of some imports would rise, with many ordinary
families paying more. This is not what to do if you want to boost
economic growth, a key Trump goal.Trump has also threatened companies that build products in Mexico with sizeable “border tariffs” if they could just as easily make such goods in the United States. He has tangled on that issue with automakers such as Ford and General Motors, which both build cars in Mexico that are for sale in America. Those flare-ups have been doused by automaker promises to hire more Americans and invest more in America—no border taxes needed.
Trump meets regularly with CEOs
and other top business minds, and he undoubtedly gets an earful about
the risks of protectionism. He appears to be listening. Trump could
still seek trade concessions from China and Mexico as various agencies
finalize reports and investigations into America’s trade relationships.
Perhaps most likely are targeted, modest requests on trade from key
partners. But the odds of outright trade wars seem to be dropping. That
is good for businesses and might even benefit their workers at some
point.
Sean Spicer Throws In the Towel
When the president of the United States makes several major shifts on policy
in the course of the week, it’s bound to raise a series of questions.
Luckily, there’s someone whose job is to answer those questions, giving
the press information about the president’s thinking and direction: the
White House press secretary.
Related Story
The Education of Donald J. Trump
At least in theory. Sean Spicer seemed less than enthused on Thursday about trying to explain why Donald Trump shifted his view on issues ranging from the Export-Import Bank to interest rates to Chinese currency manipulation in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
Trump also announced that NATO, which he had said was obsolete, is no
longer obsolete. During Thursday’s White House briefing, reporters
wanted to know what had happened, and what this meant for other Trump
positions—were they equally malleable?
“I
think, respectfully, I think you can look at what you’re referring to
as a shift in a lot of ways, and by that I mean I saw a couple instances
with respect to NATO being one of those shifts, and if you look at
what’s happened, it’s those entities or individuals in some cases or
issues evolving toward the president’s position,” he said.
On
NATO, Spicer noted that Trump had demanded that the alliance focus more
on terror and that other members increase their defense spending. Both
those things are seeing movement, Spicer said. This is fair as far as it
goes: The changes may not be due to Trump, but there has been movement.
But
it doesn’t explain the economic-policy shifts, and on those Spicer was
rather more vague. Why had the president decided the Ex-Im Bank wasn’t
such a bad idea?
“Let me get back to you on the Ex-Im bank. It’s a very complex issue and I would like to get back.”
Why does Trump no longer believe China is devaluing its currency, even though he has said so as recently as February?
“It’s a very, very complex issue and I’m gonna leave it to the president to specifically answer it,” Spicer offered.
There’s
an element of comedy to this: Spicer’s job is to explain the
president’s positions to the press and the public. And sure, the press
secretary can’t be expected to be an expert in every topic. Except that
Spicer knows a thing or two about trade policy, having served as a
spokesman for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative during the
George W. Bush administration
Spicer’s had a rough week. On Tuesday, he stumbled into an unfortunate and ill-conceived comparison
between Bashar al-Assad and Adolf Hitler, only digging himself deeper
before realizing his error and trying to reverse it. It’s also hard to
defend Trump when he changes his positions so abruptly, especially while
admitting in some cases that he simply did not understand the question at hand.
Moreover, Spicer has reason to be nervous. Trump is believed to watch
press briefings closely. Spicer could be concerned about wedding himself
too closely to any one position, since Trump could easily just change
his mind back. He has on occasion contradicted Spicer’s statements in
the briefing room.
Still,
the correct answer is surely to defend whatever whatever the president
says his policy is right now. If even his own spokesman can’t understand
and explain that, how is anyone else to do so?
Thursday, 13 April 2017
Wednesday, 12 April 2017
Defense Secretary Mattis won't say what a US aircraft carrier is up to near North Korea
Defense Secretary Jim Mattis explained Tuesday the decision to strike Sharyat air base in Syria with 57 cruise missiles, and noticeably seemed to avoid a looming nuclear threat — North Korea.
The
USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier and strike group have been deployed to
the Korean peninsula in response to North Korea's nuclear threats,
which prompted the Kim regime to warn the US of potential nuclear strikes should they be provoked.But according to Mattis, there's nothing to make of the carrier strike group redirecting itself to the region.
"She's stationed there in the western Pacific for a reason. She operates freely up and down the Pacific," said Mattis of the Vinson, implying the imposing carrier would send a message to North Korea and other actors in the region.
However, when pressed on what exactly that reason might be, Mattis seemed to backtrack saying "there's not a specific reason or demand signal," that brought the Vinson to the Korean peninsula.
North Korea's Kim
regime, which US presidents have tried for decades to engage with
diplomatically, has recently stepped into a visible and distressing
stage of its nuclear and ballistic missile program that requires testing.
Experts have told Business Insider that once North Korea perfects an intercontinental ballistic missile, it reaches a "point of no return"
whereby the US no longer has any military credibility against the Kim
regime and may be forced to acknowledge it as a national power.
The US has repeatedly and openly mulled military action against the Kim regime, but Joel Wit, co-founder of 38 North,
a website that brings together experts on North Korea, told Business
Insider that "it's almost universal that the downsides of military
strikes are so great that it's hard to see them taking place."
North Korea's nuclear and conventional forces are too spread out to wipe out all at once. Additionally, their artillery installations and missile launchers could likely level Seoul, South Korea's capital city and home to 10 million people.
Trump reiterated in a tweet on Tuesday that "North
Korea is looking for trouble. If China decides to help, that would be
great. If not, we will solve the problem without them!" also adding that
he told Chinese President Xi Jinping at their meeting on Thursday "a trade deal with the US will be far better for them if they solve the North Korean problem!"
However, the US can only threaten North Korea with force or cut off business ties. North Korea's main backer for years has been China, which carries out 85% of North Korea's external trade and provides a similar percentage of its energy imports.
China could potentially curb North Korea's nuclear program
through a limited deployment of military forces or by halting trade
with the Hermit Kingdom. But China has a strong interest in preserving
the North Korean state, as it acts as a buffer between the US's 25,000
permanently stationed troops in South Korea.
A Chinese envoy of diplomats arrived in South Korea on Monday and reportedly reached an agreement
on how to handle North Korea's nuclear ambitions. It remains to be seen
if the South Korean-Chinese action will be good enough for the Trump
administration.
Is Bannon in peril? Trump comments worry his populist base
WASHINGTON (AP) -- President
Donald Trump has declared: "I am my own strategist." That would seem to
bode poorly for his actual strategist, Steve Bannon.
And Trump now appears to be publicly distancing himself.In an interview with The New York Post, the president said "I like Steve" and called his adviser "a good guy" — but one who wasn't really all that involved with his winning election campaign. He said his warring senior officials, including Bannon, must "straighten it out or I will." In a second interview with The Wall Street Journal, he dismissively called Bannon "a guy who works for me."
The unusual public, lukewarm support from the boss has Bannon's friends and advisers worried he will soon be out of a job. But shedding Bannon would be no simple staff shake-up. More than any other member of Trump's orbit, the former media executive and radio host, known as a bare-knuckle political fighter, has a following all his own. He is viewed by many in the conservative core as the ideological backbone in a White House run by a president who boasts of his flexibility.
"I think it's important to recognize the value of the base. It's important to recognize the base sees their advocate in Steve Bannon," said Michael Caputo, a former Trump campaign adviser who has known the president for decades.
Bannon is not the only Trump official to find himself in the hot seat in a White House divided. Press Secretary Sean Spicer has also come under fire for comments he made about the Holocaust on Tuesday. Spicer has apologized repeatedly, including on Wednesday, and the White House hopes that controversy will pass.
As for Bannon, before joining the campaign last summer as its chief executive officer, he was informally advising Trump. And as leader of the conservative Breitbart News he spent the better part of a year connecting Trump with the populist, nationalist voters who would propel him to victory over 16 Republican opponents and Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In more than half a dozen interviews during the campaign with Bannon on Breitbart's radio show, Trump laid out his vision for leading the country, with Bannon sometimes playing the role of coach.
Bannon, more than any other White House aide, speaks the language of Trump's populist base. He spoke in February of "our sovereignty" as a country and about the new administration's aim for "deconstruction of the administrative state." He also helped write many of Trump's hardest-line speeches.
"It would be a terrible signal if Trump were to either force Bannon out or let him go because he is the face of the national populism that inspired a lot of voter to vote for Trump," said Ned Ryun, founder of the conservative group American Majority and a longtime friend of Bannon's.
"And what makes it even worse right now," Ryun added, "is that people have deep concerns about liberal New York Democrats associated with Goldman Sachs coming in and making strong moves at the White House."
That view cuts to the core of why Bannon might be on the outs at the White House.
He's feuded with Trump's son-in-law-turned-senior-adviser, Jared Kushner, and with economic chief Gary Cohn. Both are New Yorkers who have voted for Democrats. Cohn, the former No. 2 at Goldman Sachs, and fellow Goldman executive Dina Powell, one of Trump's top national security advisers, have been gaining favor with the president.
Last week, Trump removed Bannon from the National Security Council, while Powell appears to be ascendant.
The president's irritation with Bannon could have roots in the adviser's high profile in the early days of the administration. Democrats waged a campaign to brand him as "President Bannon." He appeared on Time magazine's cover and was portrayed on "Saturday Night Live" as the Grim Reaper pulling the president's strings.
Recently, the president has undercut Bannon in front of other senior staffers, including questioning the need for his presence in certain White House meetings.
Bannon is seen as increasingly isolated within the White House, particularly after the health care debacle. His hard-line sales pitch to the Freedom Caucus lawmakers — he told the Republicans that the White House-based legislation was not up for debate — was panned inside the West Wing as a major misstep that cost Trump votes. The original travel ban, a Bannon effort, is mired in the courts, and Trump appears to be backing away from some of the economic policies that Bannon championed.
And Bannon's creation of an in-house think tank known as the Strategic Initiatives group has been marginalized. Some staff members initially hired for that project are now part of the Kushner-led Office of American Innovation.
It's Bannon's rift with Kushner that seems to have troubled the president the most.
The 36-year-old and 63-year-old have clashed repeatedly in recent weeks.
Trump has stressed loyalty in his business and political careers and has shown a reluctance to dismiss top aides, even under public pressure. But he also has drawn a line in the past when it comes to his kids.
It's a lesson learned by Trump's first campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, who was pushed out of his role after clashing with the president's children about the direction of the campaign.
But Bannon's supporters say Kushner's importance doesn't erase Bannon's. Caputo said that Bannon must "fix things" in White House relationships but dismissed as "hype" the belief that he is about to lose his job.
Says Ryun: "Kushner is family. He's not going anywhere," But he adds, "Bannon should not go anywhere either because of what he represents to the voter."
In the end, whoever
is advising in the White House, "this will be a Trump presidency," says
former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, an informal Trump adviser.
"Trump has been Trump for a long time. And he will continue to be Trump."
Exclusive: North Korean ships head home after China orders coal returned
By John Ruwitch and Meng Meng
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - A fleet of North Korean cargo
ships is heading home to the port of Nampo, the majority of it fully
laden, after China ordered its trading companies to return coal from the
isolated country, shipping data shows.Map: http://reut.rs/2olrbc0
Following
repeated missile tests that drew international criticism, China banned
all imports of North Korean coal on Feb. 26, cutting off the country's
most important export product.
To curb coal traffic between the
two countries, China's customs department issued an official order on
April 7 telling trading companies to return their North Korean coal
cargoes, said three trading sources with direct knowledge of the order.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi
Jinping were discussing North Korea at Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort on
April 7.Shipping data on Thomson Reuters Eikon, a financial information and analytics platform, shows a dozen cargo ships on their way to North Korea's main west coast port of Nampo, almost all carrying cargoes from China.
Chinese authorities did not respond to requests for official comment.
The Trump
administration has been pressuring China to do more to rein in North
Korea, which sends the vast majority of its exports to its giant
neighbor across the Yellow Sea.
But U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has said
last week's U.S. military strike against Syria over its alleged use of
chemical weapons was a warning to other countries, including North
Korea, that "a response is likely" if they pose a danger.As a U.S. Navy strike group headed to the region in a show of force, China and South Korea agreed on Monday to slap tougher sanctions on North Korea if it carries out nuclear or long-range missile tests, a senior official in Seoul said.
North Korea marks several major anniversaries this month and often marks the occasions with major tests of military hardware.
TWO MILLION TONNES
A source at Dandong Chengtai, one of China's biggest buyers of North Korean coal, said the company had 600,000 tonnes of North Korean coal sitting at various ports, and a total of 2 million tonnes was stranded at Chinese ports.
Eikon data shows that most of these ships have recently left Chinese coal ports, including Weihai and Peng Lai, returning to North Korea full or mostly filled with cargo.
Last month, Reuters reported that Malaysia briefly prevented a North Korean ship carrying coal from China from entering its port in Penang because of a suspected breach in sanctions. The ship was eventually allowed to unload its 6,300 metric tonnes of anthracite coal.
North Korea is a significant supplier of coal to China, especially of the type used for steel making, known as coking coal.
To make up for the shortfall from North Korea, China has ramped up imports from the United States in an unexpected boon for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has declared he wants to revive his country's struggling coal sector.
Eikon data shows no U.S. coking coal was exported to China between late 2014 and 2016, but shipments soared to over 400,000 tonnes by late February.
To make up for the shortfall from North Korea, China has ramped up imports from the United States in an unexpected boon for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has declared he wants to revive his country's struggling coal sector.
Eikon data shows no U.S. coking coal was exported to China between late 2014 and 2016, but shipments soared to over 400,000 tonnes by late February.
This
trend was exacerbated after cyclone Debbie knocked out supplies from the
world's top coking coal region in Australia's state of Queensland,
forcing Chinese steel makers to buy even more U.S. cargoes.
The other big coking coal supplier that has ramped up exports to China since the ban on North Korean cargoes is Russia.How Have Geopolitics Take Center Stage?
The missile strikes were the
aftermath of the Syrian military’s poison gas attack to kill dozens of
civilians. However, the air strike in Syria has fallen upon relations
between Moscow and Washington as Russia is an ally of the Syrian
president Bashar al-Assad.
Russia has
already criticized the U.S. air strike against Syria as "aggression
against a sovereign state in violation of the norms of international
law." So, now the risk of a U.S.-Russia clash has increased. Not only
Russia, Iran – another supporter of Syria government – boosted military
support for the Assad regime.
Now comes North Korea, which has
been launching ballistic missiles lately to show its antagonism over
annual military drills between U.S. and South Korea. North Korea views
these drills as trials before invasion.
North Korea’s recent missile launches on test purpose triggered concerns over safety in peripheral countries. Washington now looks extremely proactive in tackling North Korea’s nuclear threat by launching a navy strike group.
Other Economic Tensions
Meanwhile, job data for the month of March came in
weaker than expected. U.S. employers added 98,000 new jobs in March,
less than the downwardly revised 219,000 in February and market
expectations of 180,000. The figure marked the lowest job gains in 10
months.The Fed has also hinted at deleveraging the balance sheet this year. So, a significant amount of uncertainty is brewing up in the market. Overvaluation concerns also played a role in flaring up volatility(read: 5 Alternative ETFs to Avoid 'Cognitive Dissonance' in Market).
Risk quotient in the market elevated with the CBOE Volatility Index trading at about 13 compared with 11 at the start of March. iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN VXX was up about 7.3% in the last two days (as on April 10, 2017).
These worries may keep the stock market
volatile, and investors may find some protection in alternative ETFs.
Among several alternative products, 'macro' hedge funds are likely to be
on investors ’radar.
Inside Macro Hedge Fund’s Historical Performance
Macro funds look to follow macroeconomic trends using currencies, bonds, rates and stock futures. These products beat the broader industry during the financial crisis and amassed tens of billions of dollars between 2010 and 2012. But these shed most of those assets between 2013 and 2014 and some in 2016. However, these products got their mojo back to some extent in recent sessions.
Below we highlight four hedge fund ETFs that beat the broader market ETFs like SPY, DIA and QQQ in the last five days (as of April 10, 2017)
Cambria Value and Momentum ETF VAMO
This is an active ETF which uses a quantitative approach to actively manage a portfolio of U.S. equities (read: Are Hedge Fund ETFs Good Bets for Only Uncertain Times?).
SPDR SSGA Multi-Asset Real Return ETF RLY
The ETF looks to achieve real return consisting of capital appreciation & current income. The fund seeks to track the performance of a market index; exchange traded commodity trusts & ETNs (read: 5 Alternative ETFs to Beat Market Slump).
PowerShares DWA Tactical Multi-Asset Income Portfolio DWIN
It is a smart beta ETF tracking the Dorsey Wright Multi-Asset Income Index. It follows a fund-of-funds approach. It rotates within seven different income-producing market segments based on relative strength and current yield criteria.
Merger ETF MRGR
The underlying index of the fund provides exposure to a global merger arbitrage strategy, which seeks to reflect the spread between the price at which the stock of a company trades after the proposed acquisition of such a target is announced and the value that the acquiring company has proposed to pay for the stock of the target. The index takes long positions in target securities.
Inside Macro Hedge Fund’s Historical Performance
Macro funds look to follow macroeconomic trends using currencies, bonds, rates and stock futures. These products beat the broader industry during the financial crisis and amassed tens of billions of dollars between 2010 and 2012. But these shed most of those assets between 2013 and 2014 and some in 2016. However, these products got their mojo back to some extent in recent sessions.
Below we highlight four hedge fund ETFs that beat the broader market ETFs like SPY, DIA and QQQ in the last five days (as of April 10, 2017)
Cambria Value and Momentum ETF VAMO
This is an active ETF which uses a quantitative approach to actively manage a portfolio of U.S. equities (read: Are Hedge Fund ETFs Good Bets for Only Uncertain Times?).
SPDR SSGA Multi-Asset Real Return ETF RLY
The ETF looks to achieve real return consisting of capital appreciation & current income. The fund seeks to track the performance of a market index; exchange traded commodity trusts & ETNs (read: 5 Alternative ETFs to Beat Market Slump).
PowerShares DWA Tactical Multi-Asset Income Portfolio DWIN
It is a smart beta ETF tracking the Dorsey Wright Multi-Asset Income Index. It follows a fund-of-funds approach. It rotates within seven different income-producing market segments based on relative strength and current yield criteria.
Merger ETF MRGR
The underlying index of the fund provides exposure to a global merger arbitrage strategy, which seeks to reflect the spread between the price at which the stock of a company trades after the proposed acquisition of such a target is announced and the value that the acquiring company has proposed to pay for the stock of the target. The index takes long positions in target securities.
Investors
should note that “cross-border M&A had its strongest start since
2007, driving first-quarter global volumes up 7%.” This corporate
behavior puts this merger fund in focus (read: 5 Hot ETFs to Rescue if
Trump Trade Wavers).
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